Sunday, January 20, 2008

Hillary Clinton In 2008

My prediction for the Democratic candidate for the next Presidential race is Hillary Clinton. This is not an endorsement, as I am not a Democrat, I am not a Republican, and for that matter I am not a Conservative. I believe both Parties in the American Party system are severly flawed in ideology and structure.

Hillary Clinton

Yesterday Hillary Clinton won the Nevada Caucus, which though is important considering Barack Obama won the Culinary Union's endorsement and the resulting exit poll responses which detailed her higher support among women and latinos; it is not the lynch pin for her to be the Democratic candidate. What has led me to predict Hillary Clinton as the Democratic candidate is her performance thus far, racial division, her finances, and her experience.

Performance

In Iowa Hillary lost by 7 points, however she recently won Nevada by 6 points, I bring up Nevada because some commentators have suggested that it wasn't a large win, but if that's the case then Iowa wasn't that large of a loss. After Iowa Hillary was doubted by most pundits and the media, yet she went on to win New Hampshire in the fashion of Bill Clinton as the much harkened "Come-back Kid." And as I mentioned Nevada went Hillary just yesterday.

Another fact is that Hillary has 236 delegates to Obama's 148, though to win the nomination a candidate must have 2,025 delegates, she is handily beating him by close to 100 delegates. Still however these results do not guarentee Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination; what I suggest offers that guarentee is Barack Obama shrinking from a candidate of change to a candidate of a minority.

Racial Divide

Prior to two weeks ago race was not a major factor, today it is an overwelming one. Two weeks ago Bill Clinton called Barack Obama's record and how he portrayed it a "fairytale," now Barack Obama never called this comment racist but some of his supporters did. Now when one sees the evidence, I am motivated to say quite certainly there was no racism involved. Now considering Obama's supporters were claiming racism where there was no racism, and thus making Obama appear openly sensitive to one racial group over another, Obama became emphasized as a black candidate. Now being a black candidate isn't a negative, but it is when it appears to be exclusionary, it is.

This again was illustrated in remarks Hillary made to a Fox reporter about Martin Luthor King and Lynden B. Johnson. She merely stated LBJ began to realize King's dream, and objectively he did, by making the Civil Rights Act law in 1964. By these claims of racism from Obama supporters where there was no evidence, and the rumour that the Obama campaign was sending out campaign materials suggesting racism, Obama limited his appeal to one race while increasing his support with the other. In comparing Iowa and Nevada, as New Hampshire had few black voters, it is evident that white voters went from Edwards to Clinton, leaving Obama with an 11 point gain among his black voters. I thus predict as Obama has become identified strictly with a minority, he will lose any potential growth at the expense of Hillary garnering the White vote.

Finances

Hillary Clinton has raised over 90 million dollars to Barack's 80 million, while spending only 40 million and Barack spending 44 million; thus leaving Barack with only 36 million and Hillary with 50 million. This together with the fact that Hillary has been still winning, at this point, more then Obama while spending less, I postulate she not only has the money to continue a long fight, but she's getting more bang for her buck. Not to mention she has Bill Clinton as a fundraiser and advocate which is undoubtedly aiding her campaign.

Experience

The aspect of experience is important in this race, especially for Mrs. Clinton. Though admittedly the need for change is perhaps even more important, the difference between her and Barack Obama in both these regards is a determining factor. In the Iowa exit polls those who valued experience preferred Hillary 49% while Obama only received 5%; in comparision to those who valued change supported Obama 51% and Hillary 19%. Clearly though Hillary loses to Obama over the issue of change, she trumps him over a larger margin for those who voted based on experience. These results are even more exaggerated in the Nevada exit polls.

Hillary Clinton's Possible Weakness


Sex

Though I would hope this wouldn't be a factor, it has been proven to already be one. With other candidates suggesting she's already playing the sex card, and she might be, and examples of the public exhibiting signs of sexism, this could harm Hillary. However I do not think it will, at least not in the Democratic race because half of the voters are women and more liberal minded; I am not as confident in this regard during a general election in November.

1 comment:

jjray said...

I think Hillary Clinton is a space alien. She'll clean up on the ET vote.