Tuesday, January 29, 2008

McCain Wins Florida And Guiliani

CNN is projecting John McCain winning the Florida Primary. Now because it was a winner-takes-all state, this means he gets the full 57 delegates Florida had to offer, which puts him at 93 delegates to his nearest competitor Mitt Romney at 59. As a Republican candidate needs 1,191 delegates and McCain leading in almost all Super Tuesday states, Florida will almost surely ensure him winning the Republican candidacy.

Adding to his momentum is the reporting that Guiliani will drop out and endorse him. Seeing how Guiliani's drop in Florida's polls directly led to a raise in McCains, it would suggest McCain and Guiliani share the same pool of voters, and as Guiliani leaves, McCain will most likely benefit.

The only possible deterrent to the McCain campaign is funding. With blowing his budget in matching Mitt Romney in Florida, McCain could lose popularity and lose traction. Romney could turn his campaign around in larger states, such California, where he can advertise in every district. This scenario is possible, but the fact that Mitt Romney spent just as much and a bit more then McCain and still lost would show it to be less likely.

To further McCain's cause, and perhaps the most telling is that exit polls indicate that voters thought McCain would do a better job with the economy.

Given four choices, nearly half of Florida Republican primary voters said the economy is the most important issue facing the country...The economy has been seen as increasingly important since the start of the 2008 presidential nomination season. McCain narrowly won the votes of Republican voters most concerned about the economy, getting more than one-third of their support.
This was a huge blow to Mitt Romney who had been the economy candidate, in comparison to McCain who had been purely the war candidate. Thus with these new results McCain has shown he can speak to two essential concerns for Republicans, the economy and the war.

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