Saturday, January 19, 2008

Mitt Romney In 2008

My prediction for the Republican candidate for the next Presidential race is Mitt Romney. This is not an endorsement, as I am not a Republican, I am not a Conservative, and for that matter I am not a Democrat, I believe both Parties in the American Party system are severly flawed in ideology and structure.

Mitt Romney

The numbers from the Nevada Caucuses are coming in, with Mitt Romney projected to win the Republican Caucus in Nevada, but these results are not even close to the determining factor. What has led me to suggest Mitt Romney will win is his performance thus far, his finances, polling data, his appearance, his experience, and his ideology.

Performance

In every Primary and Caucus thus far Mitt Romney has on average, had the strongest showing. Just looking at the delegate counts it is clear Mitt Romney has a large lead at 55 delegates over his next highest competitor Mike Huckabee at 22. Now granted a candidate to win the Republican nomination needs 1191 delegates, and thus Romney is far from that, however with his already existing lead and other factors (described below) I am confident in predicting Mitt Romney will be the Republican candidate for President of the United States.

Finances

Romney's finances also suggest that he has had the budget to wage an effective campaign, and judging from his personal finances, I am confident to say that he, unlike other candidates, will not be restrained monetarily from getting his message across.

Polls

Now true, in national polls Mitt Romney is trailing, however I believe that those numbers are slightly skewed, based more on popularity and not on how Republicans will actually vote in the Primaries and Caucuses. I fully admit this point is what would give those who disagree with me, evidential support, yet I remain confident based on the fact that this race for the Republican nomination is not a national contest, but made up of individual races. With subsequent wins and strong showings I believe Mitt Romney will be shown as the "Winning Candidate."

Appearance

Some would like to hope the candidates' appearances shouldn't be an influence, the reality is that they do. Based on my personal perspective, attempting to consider others preferences, I believe Mitt Romney portrays most of the qualities in appearance that would garner support. Such characteristics as Mitt Romney appears more youthful then John McCain (It should be noted, I believe Mike Huckabee does not have a realistic chance, and as appearance is not a major influence, it will not override his other flaws). Mitt Romney appears like a CEO, this may sound circular as Romney was a CEO, but he appears to me like a top executive, not only in his looks but in how he talks; I believe this is a valuable attribute to have in a Republican race. Perhaps encompassing parts of the other two aspects, Mitt Romney is good looking, this has been commented on by various pundits and commentators, and I believe will continue to play a factor, no matter how minimal, it will play a factor.

Experience

Mitt Romney is a former CEO of a management consulting firm, a co-founder of a private equity investment firm, and a former Massachusetts Governor. I believe his business experience will be the most influential; being a governor is beneficial but in comparision to the other Republican candidates experience, it doesn't rise him above the crowd. With a predicted continueing economic downturn in the states I believe Mitt Romney's business creditials will pay off dividends with Republican voters.

Ideology

I believe Mitt Romney has a traditional Republican ideology that will garner typical republican voters. Unlike Guiliani and McCain, Romney is known as a strong Conservative. As Governor he was quite hard on crime and punishment. He was for pro-choice earlier in his career, but has since reversed his position; avoiding any flip-flopper accusations by relying on the Conservative defence of one making mistakes when he was young.


Mitt Romney's Possible Weaknesses


Large States

California
- Delegates at stake=173 with Mitt Romney in second to McCain, with only an estimated 15.3%.

New York- Delegates at stake=101 with Mitt Romney very low, behind Giuliani, McCain, and Huckabee, with only an estimated 5%.

It should be noted that these polls were done before the primaries and thus do not reflect possible momentum Romney could have gained.

Religion

Romney is a Mormon, which I would argue could be his largest vulnerability due to the strong evangelical wing of the Republican Party; but that could be overlooked as long as he continues to speak about the role of religious values and not his specific religion.

2 comments:

Dating Scott Ross' Mom said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Winghunter said...

Why would we wait for Libs to tell us what the RINO's records are??

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