Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Hillary Clinton Wins More Then Expected

Of every state, Hillary Clinton did better then expected.

In Texas, the primary portion, the average of a series of polls put her only at a 2-point lead over Obama, yet as of right now she's up 4.

In Ohio Clinton only had a 7 point lead, yet now she has won by 12.

In Rhode Island Clinton was up by less then 10, She currently is winning by 18.

In Vermont she was polled to be behind by 24, now she's only behind by 22.

What's even more interesting is in Ohio and Texas, as CNN reports, Obama out spent Hillary by two to one. Now considering the polls and even previous polls, and the difference between them and tonight, no one can deny Hillary significantly increased her support within the last few days.

A last intersting point is that in recent history no democratic candidate has ever won the White House without winning Ohio.

So what does this mean? It means that this race isn't over.

Now I predict, at the risk of sounding prejudiced, that Obama's "momentum" is gone. Pennsylvania is next, and Hillary has a lead of 9 points, true it's more then a month away, but what evidence we have, it appears that it will go Hillary's way as well.

But some will say Hillary has no chance of catching up in the delegate count, well she does. She isn't Mike Huckabee. She's less then a 100 behind Obama, and there's more contests and more superdelegates to go.

Now let me stipulate, I am not saying Hillary will win from what happened Tuesday night. I am not saying Obama will lose because of Tuesday night. I'm saying Hillary did better then expected, and though Tuesday night didn't make the Democratic candidate, I will predict it will be a pivotal moment in the race.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

It's 3:00 am and an aide comes into the presidents bedroom and says"Mrs. Predident, sorry to wake you but Bill is still not home,should we lock the front door AGAIN?

Anonymous said...

It's 3:00 am and an aide comes into the presidents bedroom and says"MR. Predident, sorry to wake you but Gov. Deval Patrick want's his speaches back"

The Grumpy Voter said...

Mathematically, she's in a world of hurt and I think if this goes to the convention and she's counting on superdelegates, they're unlikely to support her because she's nowhere near as electable as Obama. When Republicans start talking about how they too like Obama, the Clinton campaign has bigger problems that it cares to admit.

Joseph said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Joseph said...

I think if Hillary is smart (and she is) by the end of the week, if not the end of the day, she will be challenging that Michigan and Florida must re-vote. NOT have their delegates counted now, but re-Vote.

She'll challenge Obama to support it. If there is ANY hesitation, she'll go after him for not wanting voters to have their say in choosing the nomination.

That is not a position he would want to be in . . . seen as wanting to "coast" into the nomination from his point of relatively small delegate lead and not enough pledged votes to win outright. She has nothing to lose from it and might very well re-win those states, particularly Florida where Obama is not polling well against McCain (Clinton polls better in the hypotheticals). She might also win Michigan again, though I think that would be closer.

When you look at those populations and delegate counts, it could change the pledged delegate amount enough for Clinton to move ahead as well as give her a final win in another critical swing state.

I really expect we'll see a move like this once they are able to ride the wave of winning these states for a day or two.