Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Poll: Rae The Worst To Handle A Crisis

Late today a poll conducted by Innovative Research Group was leaked to the Canadian Press, the results suggest Canadians think Bob Rae, of all the Liberal leadership candidates, has the poorest crisis management skills.

The question asked of 1,015 Canadians in a telephone interview from Nov. 5-10, was out of leadership candidates Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae, Dominic LeBlanc, and Martin Cauchon, who would be the worst suited to lead the party through a crisis. Bob Rae was voted the worst.

The poll was not commissioned by an opposing leadership campaign, but was rather a public affairs survey meant to gauge the candidates' ability to handle an economic crisis.

The results were leaked to the Canadian Press by an opposing leadership candidate, but the news agency is not admitting whether it was the Ignatieff or the LeBlanc campaign that was responsible. The release of such poll comes the day before the Rae Campaign's formal launch possibly hinting at a strategic release intended to taint the event.

Clearly the poll's results speak to Bob Rae's tenure as Premier of Ontario, where he presided over the most severe economic down turn in that province's history, but Innovative Research's Managing director Greg Lyle adds the results are not all bad for Rae.

"If I was one of his competitors, I'd say, 'Look at that, he's got the most baggage of anyone.' But if I was Bob Rae, I'd say, 'Look at that, 80 per cent forgot,"' Lyle said.
Though it is but speculation I am inclined to believe the poll was leaked by the largest of all three campaigns, that of Michael Ignatieff's. As Rae is his largest competitor, it would stand to reason Ignatieff would seek some early advantage. Once more if one remembers that both men had agreed to a non-aggression pact and Rae had overtly made Ignatieff appear bad at the recent Leadership forum in Ontario, the Ignatieff campaign would have all the more motivation to release the poll.

The Innovative Research Group poll is considered accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


burlivespipe said...

Hmm. as someone who supported Rae last time but is approaching this as a new race, I'd be very disappointed if my team had commissioned such a poll. It does smack of a Kinsella strategic play, doesn't it?

Anonymous said...

Yes I would agree it appears that way.


Anonymous said...

I should add I'm not supporting any candidate, and I don't think I will for some time.


ch said...

The poll was leaked to the press by a rival, but it doesn't seem to be commissioned by a rival.

Innovative Research said the poll was not commissioned by a rival leadership camp and was not intended to be made public. Managing director Greg Lyle said the question on Liberal contenders was tacked on to a weekly public affairs survey after a consultant for one client expressed interest in knowing how the economic management skills of the various candidates are being viewed.

Anonymous said...

Thanks CH. I did not see that. I made the corrections. Thanks again.

ch said...

Good work, Scott. The Globe didn't mention this (my quote is from the CP article) and left the impression that a rival paid for the poll. I suspect this was just to boost the intrique. The media loves the Liberal infighting narrative and this is an example of how they can play it up simply by leaving information out.